Most sellers in these three cities are still pricing off a memory. They remember what the house down the street sold for in 2022, and they anchor to it.

Here's what the data actually says right now.

Texas home prices have declined year over year for 11 straight months, a trend that started in June 2025, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M. In the Dallas market specifically, the April 2026 year over year decline was 1.3%. Statewide active inventory reached 145,900 listings in April, a 5.2 month supply, with unsold inventory averaging 90 days on market.

That is not a crash. It is a market that has normalized after three abnormal years.

The 30 year fixed rate averaged 6.66% for the week ending July 30, 2026, per Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A year ago it was 6.72%. Rates have been remarkably flat. If you have been waiting for a rate drop to unlock a wave of buyers, that wave has not come, and pricing your home as if it will is expensive.

One number matters more than any of the others: the median DFW seller reduced their price by $12,500 in April, roughly 3% of their initial list price. That is the cost of guessing.

What is actually different about DFW right now

DFW is behaving differently than the rest of Texas, and that distinction is worth understanding before you make a decision.

Statewide inventory has been climbing fast. San Antonio's active inventory rose 12.6% year over year in April. Houston rose 7%. Austin rose 3.2%.

DFW rose 0.4%.

New listing activity here has also come in below last year's level, meaning fewer sellers are choosing to come to market. Less competition on the supply side is the single most seller favorable fact in the current data, and it is specific to this metro.

So the picture for a Southlake, Colleyville, or Keller seller is mixed rather than bad. Buyers have leverage they have not had in years. But you are competing against fewer homes than a seller in Austin or San Antonio is.

Why the public numbers for your city contradict each other

If you have been checking Zillow and Redfin, you have probably noticed the numbers do not agree. In spring 2026, Redfin, Zillow, and Orchard each published a different median sale price for Southlake, and they did not just differ slightly. One showed the median up year over year. Another showed it down double digits.

Both were technically accurate. Southlake closes a small number of homes each month, sometimes fewer than 30. When one $3M estate closes, the median moves. These are not markets where citywide averages mean much.

This is the honest truth about hyperlocal data: the only number that matters for your listing decision is what has sold in your subdivision, in your price band, in the last 90 to 180 days. Not the city median. Not the metro median. Your comp set.

That is a NTREIS pull, not a website lookup, and it is the first thing I do before I give anyone a price opinion.

The fall window in these three cities

The spring and early summer stretch has historically been the busiest listing window across North Texas, with closed sales and pending contracts rising from February and peaking around May and June. That is a multi year seasonal pattern, not a 2026 forecast.

As of August, that window has closed for this cycle. Here is what replaces it.

Late September through October is a real window. Once back to school settles, showing activity picks back up. The buyers who are out in October tend to be serious. They are not weekend browsers. Fewer competing listings come to market in the fall, which means a well prepared home stands out more than it would in April.

Relocation buyers do not follow the school calendar. Southlake and Colleyville both draw corporate transferees whose timing is set by a start date, not a semester. Those buyers transact in October and November as readily as they do in April. If your home fits that buyer, fall is not a compromise.

Keller spans a wider price range, which means more of its buyer pool is rate sensitive. At 6.66%, monthly payment math is doing more of the decision making in the $400K to $700K bands than it is at $1.5M. Pricing precision matters even more here.

Listing in November and December is not automatically a mistake, but it requires a specific reason. Relocation timing, a job change, an estate situation, a contingent purchase. If you are just testing, wait.

What actually determines your outcome

Timing is one variable. It is not the biggest one.

Price to the comp set, not to your neighbor's list price. In a market where the median seller is cutting $12,500, an aspirational number does not get you a negotiation. It gets you 45 days of silence and then a cut anyway, from a weaker position.

Your first two weeks are your entire launch. Showing traffic front loads. A home that comes out sharp gets its best offers early. A home that comes out high burns through that window and then competes against its own days on market number.

Condition is doing more work than it used to. When buyers had two choices, they overlooked things. With more inventory sitting, deferred maintenance, dated flooring, and bad photos all cost real money now.

Texas has no state transfer tax. Per the Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts, there is no statewide transfer tax on a real estate sale, so there is no tax calendar reason to prefer one closing season over another.

Property tax proration is timing neutral. Texas taxes are assessed on January 1 ownership and prorated at closing based on the closing date. Whether you close in October or April, the math adjusts. Timing a sale around proration rarely makes sense on its own.

Build HOA turnaround into your timeline. Many neighborhoods across all three cities are HOA controlled, and resale certificates can take 10 to 15 business days depending on the management company. That affects your option period and your closing date, and it needs to be planned before you go live, not after.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is it too late to sell in Southlake, Colleyville, or Keller in 2026?

No. The spring peak has passed, but late September through October is an active window in all three cities, and relocation buyers transact year round. What has changed is that the market will not tolerate an aspirational price. As of the Texas Real Estate Research Center's June 2026 report, the median DFW seller cut their price by $12,500 in April.

Are home prices falling in DFW right now?

They are softening, not crashing. The Texas Real Estate Research Center recorded 11 consecutive months of year over year price declines through April 2026, with the Dallas market down 1.3% year over year in April. Statewide inventory reached a 5.2 month supply, which is close to what analysts consider a balanced market.

Should I wait until spring 2027 to list my house?

Possibly, if you have no timing pressure and your home needs work. Spring reliably brings more buyers. But it also brings more competing listings, and current forecasts do not project a meaningful price recovery that would reward waiting. If you are going to wait, use the time. Pre listing prep should start 60 to 90 days before your target date.

Will mortgage rates drop and bring buyers back?

Rates have been flat, not falling. The 30 year fixed averaged 6.66% for the week ending July 30, 2026, per Freddie Mac, compared to 6.72% at the same point a year earlier. Pricing your home on the assumption of a rate drop is a bet, not a strategy.

How long are homes taking to sell in this market?

Statewide, unsold inventory averaged 90 days on market in April 2026, and homes that did sell averaged 70 days, longer than in 2024 or 2025. Your specific number depends heavily on price band and subdivision, which is why a citywide average is close to useless for planning your timeline.

Can I negotiate a closing date that works around my move?

Yes, and this is worth structuring from the start. Standard TREC contract forms include addenda for seller possession after closing, commonly called a leaseback, along with extended possession and flexible closing windows. These terms belong in the offer negotiation, not added on afterward.

Where to start

The market has shifted, and the sellers who do well in the second half of 2026 are the ones who price to what is actually selling rather than to what sold three years ago.

If you want to know what that number is for your house, I will pull your actual comp set from NTREIS, walk you through what is moving in your subdivision and what is sitting, and give you a straight answer about your timing options. No pressure to list.

Schedule a seller consultation